LNRG Technology has initiated a collaboration with the European energy forecasting leader AleaSoft in deploying the unique AI-powered SMP (System Marginal Price) electricity price forecasting model for the Israeli electricity market. AleaSoft provides energy forecasting solutions for a variety of purposes, including electricity demand and price forecasting for the short, mid and long-term scenarios. AleaSoft has developed an energy forecasting methodology that is unique, guaranteeing the highest degree of efficiency and accuracy. This methodology has been in use for more than 25 years in some of the most important companies in the energy sector in Europe, while AleaSoft's business activity spans across Europe, LATAM and Israel. More than 400 models that have been obtained with this methodology are in service in different markets.
The AleaSoft forecasting service can be provided as a customized application for the short-term forecasting or as a periodical forecast report for all ranges. The prices forecasting reports have as output the expected prices values and the confidence bands with the associated probabilities.
The short-term scenario forecasting by AleaSoft is an hourly or half-an-hour granularity forecast with a horizon of up to 10 days. This is most relevant for real-time forecasting applications such as energy storage integration and electricity trade. The short-term forecasting service can be provided as a customized application or as a daily forecast report.
The mid-term scenario forecasting by AleaSoft is an hourly or half-an-hour granularity forecast with a horizon of up to 3 years. This is most relevant for elecricity PPA projects and electricity trade contracts. The mid-term forecasting service can be provided as a monthly forecast report.
The long-term scenario forecasting by AleaSoft is an hourly or half-an-hour granularity forecast with a horizon of up to 30 years. This is most relevant for power project feasibility evaluations. This long-range forecasting service can be provided as a quarterly forecast report.
AleaSoft complements the energy prices forecasts with forecasts of other related variables that are also of interest for those interested in the market, such as forecasts of commodity prices (oil, gas, coal, CO2 emissions), demand, production by technology (wind, hydro and solar), meteorological variables, exchange rate, economic indices, and in general of all the variables that influence the energy price. For the long‑term prices forecasts, the use of renewable energy production penetration scenarios, especially of wind and photovoltaic energy, is of particular interest.
