This assessment summarizes the 2024 discoveries and development of natural gas and other hydrocarbon resources in the Eastern Mediterranean (EastMed) region. The EastMed has been a hotspot for hydrocarbon discoveries since the late 1990s, transforming the region into a strategic arena for international cooperation and, at times, geopolitical tensions. These discoveries have spurred Israel and Egypt to launch large-scale offshore gas production projects in the Levant Basin, while Cyprus and Gaza territory, despite confirmed reserves within their economic zones, have yet to initiate extraction and monetization. Lebanon continues to explore for resources but has not yet confirmed any reserves despite promising prospects. Turkish efforts to drill near Cyprus, on behalf of Northern Cyprus, have so far been unsuccessful. Meanwhile, Syria’s offshore zones remain untapped due to the country’s prolonged security crisis.
Discoveries of hydrocabon prospects in the region began in late 1990s and produced confirmed gas discoveries in the year 2000. In 2010, following significant discoveries of natural gas in the Israeli Exculsive Economic Zone (EEZ), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published a comprehensive study named "Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resources of the Levant Basin Province, Eastern Mediterranean", estimating a mean of 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil and a mean of 122 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of recoverable gas in the Levant Basin using a geology based assessment methodology. At the time of the publication of the USGS report in 2010, there had been already some 27 TCF of P2 (50% probability) gas resources identified in the Levantine Basin - including 26 TCF in the Israeli Noa, Mari-B, Tamar and Leviathan findings, as well as 1 TCF in the Gaza Marine field in Mediterranean waters adjacent to the Gaza territory. As of 2024, the cumulative quantity of confirmed P2 gas resources found in the economic zones of regional players in the Eastern Mediterranean, is estimated at 85 TCF, plus the still unconfrmed 6-8 TCF Calypso finding. Of those 70 TCF remain to be extracted (excluding Calypso), with an extrapulated potential for dozens TCFs of additional findings.
Israeli EEZ includes three production sites of natural gas: veteran players in the Israeli offshore hydrocarbon playset involved in Tamar and Leviathan projects since 2009-2010 are Chevron (former Noble Energy), Tamar Petroleum, NewMed Energy (formerly Delek Group), Isramco, Mubadala Investment, Ratio, Dor Gas and Everest, with the most recent gas production site at Karish-Tanin location inaugurated on October 2022 by Energian. Altogether, known Israeli resources are at about 40 TCF, with about 7-8 TCF of resources already consumed. Thus, combined resources include the already exploited 1.3 TCF Yam Tethys gas fields (Mari-B, Noa and Pinnacles), producing 22 TCF Leviathan field, producing 10.8 TCF Tamar field, producing 2.3 TCF Karish & Tanin fields, prospective 2.4 TCF Katlan field and about 1.3 TCF in minor fields including Dalit and the recently discovered Zeus, Hermes, Athena and Dracon fields.
Taking a look on Egypt, which is a partner in the Israeli-Cypriot-Greek "Energy Triangle" - it has a significant foot print in the Levant Basin in terms of its economic zone. ENI is one of the first companies to become involved in the Egyptian offshore zone and is the main licence holder of the giant 30 TCF Zohr gas field. ENI's (50%) partners in Zohr are BP (10%), Rosneft (30%) and Mubadala Petroleum (10%). The Zohr project has already extracted about 6.0 TCF since the onset of its operation in December 2017. ENI is also holding the stale Damietta LNG facility in partnership with Naturgy via Union Fenosa joint venture, whereas the sporadically operating Idku LNG facility is held by Royal Dutch Shell, Petronas, Engie, EGAS and EGPC. Many of those companies are also involved in the Nile Delta basin in the southern parts of Egyptian EEZ and its shores, but those are outside the scope of the discussed Levantine Basin.
Cyprus has a number of gas findings, neither yet developed. ENI and Royal Dutch Shell are also present in Cyprus, with ENI holding licenses for blocks 2,3,9 in 50% partnership with Korean KOGAS, licenses for blocks 6,11 in 50% partnership with Total and license for block 8 on its own. Royal Dutch Shell has a 30% interest in the Aphrodite gas field in Block 12, where it is partnered with Israel NewMed Energy (former Delek Group) and Chevron (former Noble Energy). The most recent Glaucus-2 well by ExxonMobil-led consortium (including also Qatar Petroleum) was announced on May 2022. The latest confirmation of gas findings brings the cumulative quantity of proven resources in the Cypriot EEZ to some 13.5-18.2 TCF, including 4.2 TCF Aphrodite, 5-8 TCF Glaucus, 2.5 TCF Cronos and 2.0-3.5 TCF Zeus-1. Calypso potentially holds additional 6-8 TCF of gas, but it is not yet confirmed. More exploration in blocks 5,10 is scheduled for 2025.
To complete this overview, a look at other players in the region - first of all, the 1 TCF Gaza Marine field, which was disovered more than two decades ago by British Gas but failed to monetize due to a number of reasons - most notably its small size and lack of sufficient offtakers to justify its development. The Gaza Marine field is now held by the Palestinian Investment Fund (PIF), which belongs to the Palestinian Authority, and the private CCC group. Secondly, Lebanon which had issued the first tender for offshore exploration in 2018 and did attract major international players - the results of those activities are however very limited so far despite the promising potential of 25 TCF, mainly close to the border of Lebanese and Israeli EEZs. In addition, there is Turkey which since 2019 has performed hydrocarbon exploration on behalf of Northern Cyprus, but has so far failed to find any resources around the island and did produce geopolitical tensions. Finally, Syrian offshore zones couldn't yet produce any find due to long-lasting security crisis in the country.
In summary, the Levantine basin continues to show a fair match to the USGS gas discovery potential published as early as 2010. With ongoing rate of discoveries, it is still feasible that additional significant offshore gas finds would arise over the coming years to reach the full basin exploration potential of hydrocarbons. Those are most likely to arise in either the Cypriot, Egyptian or Israeli economic zones, as other regional players are failed states or non-state actors who have so far failed to progress in hydrocarbon exploration due to internal crises.
